NAPS Presidency Discuss The Effect of COVID-19 on World Security.

*NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF POLYTECHNIC STUDENTS (NAPS)*

The world is entering a volatile and unstable new phase. Scientists are increasingly confident that the COVID-19 pandemic threat will persist, possibly for years. The global economy is headed for an economic nose dive that could rival, even exceed, the Great Depression. With supply chains fragmenting, food supplies coming under strain, and prices rising, the lights are flashing red. Not only will this translate into rising unemployment and food insecurity, but it could quickly escalate into political unrest, violence, and conflict.

While some forms of crime have decreased, tensions are already flaring around the world, and not just in war zones. Protests, many of them violent, have broken out from Brazil and India to Kosovo, Malawi and South Africa. Police repression is also increasing from Kenya to the Philippines. Signs of fragility are not confined to poorer countries or even to marginalized communities in wealthier cities. The yellow vests movement has taken to the streets of Paris, while armed protesters have marched on state assemblies in the US denouncing the lock-down.

COVID-19 is putting hard security threats between nations back into the spotlight. The geopolitical rivalry between the great powers is likely to worsen as the American and Chinese economies become less interdependent.

At the very least, the risks of violence will rise in the most vulnerable countries and cities. Keen not to let a good crisis go to waste, armed groups, terrorists and organized criminals are already exploiting the pandemic. They will find further opportunities - including in cyberspace - once bailout packages begin to flow. Violence against women and human rights abuses have already spiked – both of which are harbingers of other forms of violence. This is set to intensify as at least 1.5 billion children and young people are sent home from their schools and universities. Many will be angry as they lose opportunities and a minority will convert this anger toward more dangerous purposes.

_*The following points are outlines for resolution to the lingering security threats:*_
✅An urgent and clear signal is needed from global institutions and major powers that security and safety are key priorities.
✅There must be levels of international solidarity and coordination that are on par with the Second World War. The crisis underlines the importance of ensuring redistribution and especially support for the most vulnerable - not least the unemployed, underemployed and working poor. At the very least, this is about enlightened self-interest. These are often the very same groups that deliver essential health services, maintain food supplies, and keep utilities operating. A global fund for social protection that supports the poorest of countries and a concerted focus on tackling inequality is essential.
✅ The international system needs a global insecurity monitoring system to track grievances and signal unrest before they escalate into violence. A shared platform for analyzing conflict risk has long been promised but not delivered. The World Bank and UN have agreed in principle to undertake shared analysis of conflict risks. It is now time for them to draw on external expertise to gain access to the real-time mapping, remote sensing and digital data they need to deliver a comprehensive assessment tool. The monitor can then feed other early-warning systems, especially those for food insecurity and hunger, so that they become more sensitive to triggers such as spiralling unemployment, rising mistrust of government, unrest in prisons and more.

The COVID-19 pandemic is revealing the fault lines in every country, not just those already struggling with conflict, violence and fragility. Through the Sustainable Development Goals, every country in the world promised its people that they would live free from fear and that they would deliver significant reductions in all forms of violence. We now all fear for our futures but must take the choice to use this decade to put humanity back on a peaceful, healthy and sustainable path.


*Signed:*
*Comr. Olalere Benedict*
_*NAPS Global President*_

*Comr. Adeniji Boluwaji Temitope (OBEY)*
*NAPS Director of Contact & Strategic Planning*
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 *[email protected]*